Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 5 ¾ cents lower ($7.91 ½), March 5 ¼ cents lower ($8.03 ½) & May 4 ¼ cents lower ($8.06 ¾)

December KC Wheat closed 8 ¼ cents lower ($7.98 ¼), March 8 ½ cents lower ($8.01 ¾) & May 7 ¾ cents lower ($8.01 ½)

December Mpls Wheat closed unchanged ($10.75 ½), March ¾ of a cent lower ($10.56) & May 1 ½ cents higher ($10.28 ¼)

After seeing new highs for all three varieties Monday night Tuesday brings us a minor price correction to the downside. I say minor as they were in relation to Monday’s rally. Mpls refuses to stay down as it was down 13-15 cents only to finish unchanged. That’s what a dramatically short crop will get you. KC sees the biggest correction as it was nearly half of Monday’s gains. It’s the KC market that feels the brunt of the slow export market. The Chgo market only gave back just over 20% of Monday’s gains. Overseas wheat markets continue to be strong. With that said today’s price action was mostly technical in nature responding to the overbought scenario. I do feel the wheat market, all three varieties, still have room for further technical correction in the near term.

Looking ahead to Tuesday’s USDA S&D update; it would not surprise me to see a very slight cut to exports given our current slow pace. If the overseas markets are as tight as some are alluding to the USDA will hold off on cutting exports choosing to give it more time to materialize.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/03

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.78 – $8.00

Dec KC Wheat: $7.86 – $8.09

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