Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 18 ¼ cents higher ($4.67), Sept 17 ¼ cents higher ($4.73 ½) & Dec 15 ¾ cents higher ($4.86 ¼)

July KC Wheat closed 14 ¾ cents higher ($4.16 ¾), Sept 14 ¾ cents higher ($4.27 ¾) & Dec 14 ½ cents higher ($4.48 ¾)

July Mpls Wheat closed 11 ½ cents higher ($5.26 ¾), Sept 11 ¼ cents higher ($5.35 ¾) & Dec 9 ½ cents higher ($5.47 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 114.4 K T. old crop vs. 0-250 K T. expected – 419.4 K T. new crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected

Chgo wheat continues to be your upside leader while Mpls continues to bring up the rear. Fears of disease developing in the SRW crop boosts the Chgo market. Ideas that the spring wheat crop is getting planted in N. Dakota keeps Mpls the weak sister (maybe I should say the least strong). The KC market is caught in the middle. It should be noted that most of the buying is spec short covering. The recent rally has priced US origin out of global competition. New crop export sales came in above expectations; the “but” is that the sales reported this morning were contracted for last week, before this week’s rally.

The interior cash wheat markets remain quiet. Despite the sharp rally producer selling remains slack. Gulf values appear steady to easier. Bull spreads work noticeably in Chgo. Are end-users getting in position to secure old crop stocks figuring new crop could be close to junk status? KC spreads are steady. In Mpls both July and Sept gain noticeably on December forward.

The recent price action is suggesting July Chgo is in line to test the interim double top high in the low $4.80’s. I do think that if we do move to that level the wheat market will be over extended to the high side. KC and Mpls should continue to lag if Chgo continues to move higher.

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/17

July Chgo Wheat: $4.56 – $4.76

July KC Wheat: $4.10 – $4.26

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.