Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 4 ¼ cents higher ($8.39 ¾), August 4 ½ cents higher ($8.46 ½) & Nov 5 cents higher ($8.64 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $2.1 higher ($301.9), August $2.2 higher ($303.3) & Dec $1.9 higher ($309.2)

July Soybean Oil closed 48 pts higher ($27.72), August 47 pts higher ($27.84) & Dec 44 pts higher ($28.39)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 370.9 K T. old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – 303.4 K T. new crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 196.1 K T. old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – 69.3 K T. new crop vs. 25-150 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 10.8 K T. old crop 5-25 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Continued speculative short covering keeps the soybean complex alive on Thursday. The product markets were your best performers. I have to think we are seeing the “trade” buying feed grains and selling soybeans against them. Weekly export sales of soybeans and products were deemed no big deal then again not much was expected. Soybeans will continue to be the laggard of the Ag complex until we hear more about the ongoing China/US trade negotiations and/or the weather gets to the point where it starts to impact soybean planting. The US is the best origin for non-China buying. As of this writing the trade attitude is that we are going to get additional acres planted to soybeans.

The interior soybean basis runs mostly unchanged with one exception, Savanna, IL is 6 cents better. Not much happens with the Gulf basis. Soybeans had a fractional bearish bias out to November. November soybeans gain on January forward. The interior soybean meal basis continues to be quiet while the Gulf inches better. Soybean meal spreads were pretty steady to October; after that December forward starts to tail off.

Today’s inside day for the soybean and soybean meal markets does not negate their respective technical buy signals that were registered earlier this week. The soybean market may not be the big performer that we’re seeing in the feed grain markets but if the corn and wheat markets continue to move higher the soybean complex will tag along for the ride. As of this writing we don’t have a fundamental rationale to be long while the technical aspect of the market suggests we focus on buying breaks to recent established support.

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/17

July Soybeans: $8.30 – $8.50

July Soybean Meal: $298.0 – 306.0

July Soybean Oil: $27.15 – $28.20

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.