Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 12 cents lower ($4.93 ½), Dec 12 cents lower ($5.05 ¼) & March 12 cents lower ($5.17 ¾)

Sept KC Wheat closed 9 cents lower ($4.32 ¾), Dec 9 cents lower ($4.53 ¼) & March 8 ½ cents lower ($4.73 ¼)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 2 ¼ cents lower ($5.25 1/2), Dec 3 cents lower ($5.37 ¾) & March 3 cents lower ($5.52 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 347.3 K T. old crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly export sales were deemed no big deal. US wheat remains uncompetitive in the world export market. Technical selling/liquidation developed when prices went through last week’s lows. With harvest happening throughout the Northern Hemisphere and other feedgrain prices taking it on the chin wheat prices will struggle for stability.

The interior wheat basis reads steady to better for SRW while steady to easier for HRW. The Ohio River is bidding for SRW while other SRW locations are unchanged. Goodland, KS dropped its wheat basis by 10 cents while other HRW locations are running unchanged. Gulf values for both varieties don’t do much. Both Chgo and KC spreads ran steady to easier but not as soft as one might expect given the flat price selling we saw today.

Flat price Chgo wheat just registered its lowest close dating back to late May. Prices are sitting below 1 ½ months of activity. I see a smattering of support at the $4.85 level but much better looking at $4.80 to $4.75 (Sept). Decent overhead resistance starts at the $5.05 level. The KC market is not as bearish looking as Chgo as it has not taken out last week’s lows. If and when it does another 10 cent drop can be expected. Tomorrow is Friday and for the week the entire Ag sector has taken a pretty severe beating. It would not surprise me to see an attempt at some consolidation maybe even some minor short covering. The problem is that I don’t see next week bringing us anything different vs. what we have dealt with this week.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/19

Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.90 ($4.85) – $5.06

Sept KC Wheat: $4.30 ($4.25) – $4.44

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