Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 5 ½ cents lower ($4.60), Dec 6 cents lower ($4.66 ½) & March 5 ¼ cents lower ($4.74 ¼)

Sept KC Wheat closed 4 ½ cents lower ($3.86 ¾), Dec 4 ¾ cents lower ($4.02) & March 5 cents lower ($4.17 ½)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 1 ½ cents lower ($5.04), Dec 1 cent lower ($5.16) & March 1 ½ cents lower ($5.30 ¼)

Chgo wheat moves into new low ground for the break that started in late June, early July. I’m not sure who is leading who lower but it has to be noted that European wheat futures pumped out new contract lows today citing a plentiful supply. I know Russian prices have been easing as well. One has to remember that projected World ending stocks are nearly 10.0 M T. greater vs. one year ago. the bottomline is that the world’s primary exporters are all vying for market share. More times than not when this happens the result is lower prices.

Advertised prices for standard protein wheat run unchanged. This holds true for export prices as well. The Sept contract has 7 more business days before its 1st notice day. Delivery availability has been tight for some time now. It wasn’t that long ago Sept/Dec Chgo traded into a slight inverse. It looks like an 8 cent carry should be support. Dec forward spreads, which had been strong up until yesterday, now appear they may be in the process of topping out.

Dec Chgo wheat continues to point lower. $4.60 is the next support level followed by something closer to $4.50. Inter-market spreading allows Dec KC to honor its recent $4.00 support level. I’ve never been a fan of left-handed support (inter-market spreading) having any sustaining bullishness. With that said we should see new contract lows in the KC market.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/21

Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.60 (?) – $4.73

Dec KC Wheat: $3.97 (?) – $4.08

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.