Sept Chgo Wheat closed 16 cents higher ($5.46 ½), Dec 16 ½ cents higher ($5.66 ½) & March 15 ¾ cents higher ($5.81 ¾)
Sept KC Wheat closed 15 ¼ cents higher ($5.47 ¾), Dec 15 ¼ cents higher ($5.74 ¾) & March 14 ½ cents higher ($5.91 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 379.1 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected
Weekly Winter Wheat Progress – Harvested – 85% vs. 87% expected vs. 86% 5-year average
Weekly Spring Wheat Condition & Progress – 78% GE (-1%) vs. 77% expected vs. 31% year ago – Harvested – 4% vs. 7% expected vs. 4% 5-year average
Concerns over the developing US spring wheat, the developing EU crop and the developing Black Sea crop continue to boost wheat prices. It seems as harvest rolls for the EU and Black Sea winter crop losses continue to mount. The spring wheat crop remains in issue as well. After last week’s Wheat Quality Council tour of the US spring wheat crop traders will be expecting noticeably losses on the August 9th crop report. Additionally – we are already expecting to see noticeable drawdowns in total World production. Given estimates that have come out of the EU and Black Sea and now the US world production can be down 15-20 M T.
Interior cash wheat prices are mostly steady. Export prices for SRW are steady as well. Export prices for HRW continue to be soft. Bull spreads work in Chgo, KC and Mpls (sans the Sept contract). There is nothing bearish about how the Dec forward spreads are working.
Chgo flat price wheat challenges last week’s highs but doesn’t really back off. KC matches last week’s highs but really doesn’t back off much. The European market really didn’t come close to challenging last week’s highs but overall is still quite firm. I know it appears the US market is trying to assume a leadership role I still think it will come down to EU and Black Sea prices. Overall the price structure for all involved remains strong looking. I remain hesitant to chase the rally at this time even though the market is not registering an overbought status. Prices have room to retrace lower. I’ll wait for that with the hope I don’t get left out in the cold.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/31
Sept Chgo Wheat: $5.31 – $5.55 (?)
Sept KC Wheat: $5.33 – $5.55 (?)
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