Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 21 ¾ cents lower ($5.34 ½), July 18 ¾ cents lower ($5.20 ¾) & Dec 7 ¾ cents lower ($4.48)

USDA announces Corn Export Sale Cancellation – 132 K T. to unknown

Weekly Ethanol Grind as of 2/05 – 937 K bpd vs. 936 K week ago – Stocks – 23.8 M bbls vs. 24.3 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 800 K – 1.400 M T. expected – new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected

It was an ugly day as the corn market gets insult added to injury on Wednesday. The “injury” was yesterday’s S&D report showing higher projected ending stocks (in the US and in the World) vs. traders’ expectations. Today’s “insult” was the announced sale cancellation to unknown. The end result of all this had the corn market flirting with a “limit down” move late in the session. Another indication of the mad rush to liquidate was the TAS (trade at settlement) market in March corn at one time being offered at 3/4 under.

Not a lot of changes are being seen in the Midwestern cash corn markets. The Ohio River reads 2 cents better while Cedar Rapids, IA reads 5 cents lower. The midday posting at the Gulf reads unchanged with last night. Despite the dramatic drop in the flat price the nearby corn spread only loses fractionally. After that bear spreads ruled the roost especially old crop vs. new crop. The July/Dec corn spread lost 11 cents today.

Tuesday’s suggested downside reversal really brought out the selling today. I see a smattering of support at the $5.30 level  (March) but much better down towards the $5.15 level. $5.50 – $5.55 now has to be deemed as resistance. Today is weekly export sales day and I’m not sure we can get enough out of the sales report to give us much more than a reactionary bounce to the near 45 cent break from yesterday’s high to today’s low.  I may be wrong but I’m thinking we will see a shift in the spec trader’s mentality to selling rallies vs. buying breaks.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/11

March Corn : $5.15 – $5.44

July Corn: $5.03 – $5.32

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.