Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 47 ¾ cents lower ($13.54), July 43 ½ cents lower ($13.35 ¾) & Nov 27 ¼ cents lower (11.63 ½)

March Soybean Meal closed $16.4 lower ($422.3), July closed $15.4 lower ($417.6) & Dec $9.5 lower ($368.0)

March Soybean Oil closed 83 pts lower ($45.69), July closed 70 pts lower ($44.27) & Dec 58 pts lower ($41.42)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-750 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

I will admit I was very surprised at the magnitude of today’s break. Today’s break was a result of what I call the domino/cascade effect. Sell stops were triggered when prices went through yesterday’s lows and more were elected when we went through Monday’s lows. The next level of sell stops are probably below the $13.33-$13.35 level. If these stops are elected the next stop will be the $13.00 level. If I had to guess this was more “buy the rumor/sell the fact” type trading. Longer term it will be hard to ignore the current projected S-T-U at 2.6 pct. The only way that can change/increase is if we see sales’ cancellations going forward. What would prompt sales cancellations – sizable sales out of Brazil. Their harvest ready areas should be rocking and rolling very shortly.

The interior Midwestern cash soybean market (basis) is not seeing too many changes. Lincoln, NE increases their soybean basis by 5 cents while Savanna, IL drops by 1 cent. The nearby Gulf basis reads steady to firm at the midday posting while the early summer months Gulf basis is showing some notable easiness. Soybean spreads were under the gun all the way out to Nov 2022. The domestic meal basis shows some signs of easing while the export basis runs unchanged. Meal spreads saw similar easing when compared to the soybean spreads as did soybean oil spreads. The break in the spreads is all about liquidation stemming form the flat price break.

In just one day the soybean and soybean meal charts have all taken on an ominous look. The last three weeks of price action has the look of upflags and after today they all have the appearance of breaking down. Bean oil charts don’t have the ominous look but if the meal and soybean charts are going to follow through to the downside soybean oil will follow.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/11

March Beans : $13.35 ($13.15) – $13.70

March Meal: $418.0 ($410.0) – $429.0

March Bean Oil: $45.00 – $46.10

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