Corn Commentary

storck

Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 3 ½ cents lower ($3.73 ¾), July 3 ½ cents lower ($3.83 ½) & Dec 2 ¼ cents lower ($3.98)

April Chgo Ethanol closed $0.037 cents a gallon lower ($1.373) & May $0.028 cents lower ($1.384)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – March 22nd – 975 K bpd vs. 1.004 Million bpd previous week – Stocks – 24.4 million bbls vs. 24.4 million bbls previous week

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 700 K – 1.200 M T. expected d- new crop vs. 0-150 K T. expected

The beating in the soybean and soybean meal markets weighs on corn prices Wednesday. New direct corn news remains slight. It appears that the respective corn crops in SA are coming along nicely. Don’t be surprised to see a slight bump up in the Argentine corn crop. So far we’ve yet to see a threat against the 2nd season Brazilian corn crop. Wheat/corn spreading was also noted. Other than the aforementioned we wait and see what the USDA has to say on Friday in regards to the Quarterly Stocks data and the Prospective Plantings figure. For what it is worth the spec trade remains a sizeable short. Given today’s activity they appear almost fearless as to what the USDA may have to say on Friday.

The interior cash corn markets (basis) continue to show me a mixed look.  Processors show the best basis; Cedar Rapids bounces back from recent weakness. River locations continue to show a weak undertone. The Gulf hangs tough but I’m told that is mainly due to transportation issues getting product to the ports. Corn spreads continue to show a widening trend.

Corn charts, after today’s activity, have prices testing recently established minor support. Daily momentum indicators, however, show prices on the verge of rolling over. I would be surprised to see much more weakness beyond what we saw today going into Friday’s data. As of this writing the most bullish item we have going for the near term is the size of spec short. Friday could be a volatile day given the USDA reports as well as it being month end and quarter end. Most would expect to see some position squaring going into that time frame.  

Daily Support & Resistance for 03/28

July Corn: $3.80 – $3.86   Dec Corn: $3.94 ½ – $4.00 ½

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.