May Soybeans closed 13 ¼ cents lower ($8.87 ½), July 13 ¼ cents lower ($9.01) & Nov 11 ½ cents lower ($9.23 ¼)
May Soybean Meal closed $6.6 lower ($304.4), July $6.5 lower ($308.3) & Dec $5.9 lower ($315.4)
May Soybean Oil closed 17 pts higher ($28.82), July 16 pts higher ($29.14) & Dec 17 pts higher ($29.89)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 500-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-20 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Soybeans for sale, soybeans for sale – who will buy my soybeans? If Wednesday’s activity is any indication no one is interested. Trade delegates from both China and the US are meeting in Beijing starting tomorrow and then again in the US next week. Today’s price action suggests many are beginning to believe nothing will come of these meetings. In the past the spec trade had gotten snaked into believing something would come of these meetings. It seems now the attitude is show me the sales. The Quarterly Stocks on Friday is expected to be some variation of large. Acreage, expected to be lower, is up in the air if the western, northwestern flooding persists.
The interior soybean basis remains soft looking. The same goes for the Gulf basis. SA values make US origin look expensive. Soybean spreads continue to show a widening trend. The July/Nov spread registers new contract lows, new contract low closes. The interior meal basis shows some strength in reaction to western facilities that are having weather related problems. Locations that are not having problems are trying to pick up the slack. The Gulf basis for meal is steady with a firm undertone. Once again strength at the Gulf is due to weather related issues getting product to the ports. Meal spreads showed a bearish bias all the way out to Dec 2020.
Soybean charts are ugly looking. 3-4 month lows will do that. Downside projections are now the low $8.80’s basis July. Soybean meal charts are not far behind as to their ugliness. Daily momentum indicators have rolled over from the 2-day sell-off. Meal prices may pause at the earlier in the month lows but I’m not holding my breath for support and/or a turnaround. Soybean oil gets some left handed support from inter-market spreading (the liquidation of meal/oil spreads) but it is usually not the type of support that one can call sustaining. Bean oil will do well for itself holding in the mid to low $28.00’s.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/28
May Soybeans: $8.96 – $9.06
May Soybean Meal: $307.5 – 315.0
May Soybean Oil: $28.40 (?) – $29.00
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