Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 39 cents higher ($6.75 ½), Sept 28 cents higher ($5.58 ¼) & Dec approximately 28 cents higher ($5.47 ¼)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.008 M T. vs. 1.200-1.700 M T. expected

Despite decent rains occurring in parts of Iowa and points east and a lower than expected weekly export inspection number corn futures moved smartly higher on Monday. There is a call for big heat to return to the northwestern Corn Belt in the days ahead. In addition to the weather fears in the US the Brazilian 2nd season corn crop is now seeing frost threats over the next few days. It is my thought that today’s rally is more about positioning/posturing for Wednesday’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report. The last number of days of trading had the corn market in a bit of a depressed state.

The weekend rainfall is thought to have stabilized the nation’s corn crop. Trade expectations are to see the corn rating increase by 1% to 66% GE. The USDA reports the nation’s corn crop is now 64% GE (-1%).

I find it interesting that all last week we talked about this past weekend’s weather. Now the trade wants to talk about warm and dry returning to the west, northwestern Corn Belt. So as not to get the cart ahead of the horse we first need to deal with Wednesday’ Stocks and Acreage data. The average guess for the corn Quarterly Stocks is 4.144 B bu. (range 3.917-4.456). the average guess for planted acres is to see an increase of 2.968 M to 93.787 M (range 92.000-95.840) vs. the March intentions.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/29

Sept Corn: $5.45 – $5.75  

Dec Corn: $5.30 – $5.65

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.