Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn expired 6 cents higher ($6.83), Sept closed 17 cents higher ($5.68 ¼) & Dec 18 cents higher ($5.58 ¾)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. -100+400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 150-500 K T. expected

Weekly Ethanol Grind as of July 9th – 1.041 M bpd vs. 1.067 M week ago – Stocks – 21.1 M bbls vs. 21.1 M week ago

Its all about the forecasts going forward. After this week the western, northwestern reaches of the Corn Belt are forecasted to turn hot & dry. The central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt are expected to turn dry but without the temperature extremes. Adding to this there are now concerns developing for the Ukraine corn crop as they are beginning to deal with hot & dry. Given what happened to the Brazilian 2nd season forecast no major exporter can afford to have a short corn crop. With all of this being said corn prices roared out of the box this morning and stayed strong all day. It seems that the recent buyers want to focus on the fact that of the 1.5 M acre increase in planted corn 1.2 M come from the most weather stressed states (the Dakotas and Minnesota). What appears to be successful pollination from states east of these locations is taking a back seat.

It was just a few days ago I was thinking we would have a hard time filling the July 2nd to July 6th gap in Dec corn. After today I’m not sure. The low on July 2nd was $5.73 ½ and the close that day was $5.79 ¾. Given the extended liquidation we have seen in the corn market coupled with the current high volatility I will have to admit there is room to rally beyond my initial ideas.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/15

Sept Corn: $5.59 – $5.80 (?)

Dec Corn: $5.49 – $5.70 (?)

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