Corn Commentary


corn – Just My Opinion

December Corn closed 5 ¼ cents lower ($5.32 ¼), March 5 cents lower ($5.41) & May 4 ½ cents lower ($5.46 ¼)

Weekly Ethanol Grind as of 10/01 – 978 K bpd vs. 914 K week ago – Stocks – 19.9 M bbls vs. 20.2 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 350-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Flat price corn trades strong early on the coattails of wheat and energy but once those prices began to ease corn moves lower rather quickly. It did not help that the USDA attaché to China is suggesting their corn imports will only total 20.0 M T. this coming marketing year. In the most recent S&D report the USDA has them down for importing 26.0 M T. Add in the “harvest” syndrome and flat price corn did not have much of a chance sustaining a rally today.

Interior basis levels for corn appear to be stabilizing after recent declines. The basis at the Gulf continues to decline from early last week’s strength. Intra-market corn spreads are flip-flopping a bit but the trend appears for greater carries going forward.

Anything above the mid-$5.40’s is proving to be resistance for December corn. I would like to think $5.25 will be near term support at least until we see what the USDA has to say next week. I still think we could see a lower yield but unfortunately we could also see lower demand.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/07

Dec Corn: $5.25 – $5.42

March Corn: $5.34 – $5.51

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