Wheat Commentary


Just My Opinion – Wheat

Wheat Commentary
May Chgo wheat closes 2 cents higher ($4.26), July 2 cents higher ($4.33 ¾) and Dec ¼ cent higher ($4.67 ¼)
May KC Wheat closes 2 cents higher ($4.29 ¾), July 1 ½ cents higher ($4.40 ¾) and Dec 1 cent higher ($4.80 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – <-24.2> K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – 273.4 K T. new crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected
Weekly export sales were feeble to nothing to write home about. It seems the big topic was about China raising their new crop wheat stocks by 17.0 M T. which in turn skewed the World ending stocks figure to high. Now I have not done the math but I’m told that without Chinese stocks in the mix the world ending new crop wheat stocks actually tightened. That I think allows the flat price to catch some support after the market tried to sell off in the early going on Thursday. Inter-market spreading was also quite evident; buying wheat vs. selling corn and beans.
Little if any changes are being seen with the interior wheat bids. HRW continues to ratchet higher at the Gulf and now it looks like SRW at the Gulf is starting to see some improvement. Bull spreads were working at both exchanges (CBOT & KC).
Long term charts are suggesting a basing/bottoming pattern to me. Short term charts suggest we are a trading range affair. If I combine the tow it says I’m supposed to be buying breaks to suspected support while trying to resist chasing rallies.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/12
July Chgo Wheat: $4.28 – $4.38
July KC Wheat: $4.36 – $4.46


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