Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($14.17 ½), July 1 cent higher ($14.04) & Nov 4 cents lower (12.16)

May Soybean Meal closed $11.30 lower ($396.6), July $10.4 lower ($397.2) & Dec $5.7 lower ($368.6)

May Soybean Oil closed 250 pts higher ($56.37), July 225 pts higher ($53.75) & Dec 107 pts higher ($47.32)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 489.4 K T. vs. 300-600 K T. expected

Surging higher soybean oil prices offsets collapsing soybean meal prices which in turn keeps old crop soybeans in the plus column (barely). Soybean oil took its cue from better than expected palm exports and Chinese interest as it is reported their soybean oil stocks are at 3-year lows. Crush margins are such in China that it doesn’t pay to crush. This follows rumors that China has asked exporters to slow down shipments. Soybean meal reverses Friday gains on ideas that US processors are crushing for soybean oil in turn creating excessive meal stocks. Harvest in Brazil is now past the 50% completion and their shipments are ramping up after a historically slow January and February. As far as I’m concerned today’s weekly export inspections are enough to keep the US soybean market relatively tight going forward. As in corn next Wednesday’s Quarterly Soybean Stocks could be a tell all for direction going forward.

Processors continue to reach for soybeans while exporters look like they don’t need all that much. The Gulf basis for soybeans remains slack looking. Soybean spreads show a bullish bias within the old crop as well as vs. the new crop. Not much happens with the cash meal market whether its for domestic usage or for export. Needless to say meal spreads showed a bearish bias all the way out to the new crop. I’m not sure soybean oil spreads could look much stronger.

May soybeans continue to trade sideways either side of the $14.00 level. $14.50 continues to be interim resistance while support is down towards the $13.80 level. This range should hold until we see what the USDA has to say concerning the old crop next Wednesday. If $57.75 fails to hold the May soybean oil rally we’ll then be looking at something closer to the $61.00 level. Until we slow down the crush soybean meal will continue to be a weight around the soybean market’s neck and the meal price will stay depressed looking.

Daily Support & Resistance – 03/23

May Beans : $13.95 – $14.30

May Meal: $392.0 – $404.0  

May Bean Oil: $55.40 – ???

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