Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 10 ¾ cents lower ($15.60 ¼), July 10 ¼ cents lower ($15.24) & Nov 5 cents higher (13.44 ¾)

May Soybean Meal closed $9.8 lower ($416.2), July $11.0 lower ($415.1) & Dec $3.4 lower ($397.6)

May Soybean Oil closed 15 pts lower ($68.31), July 67 pts higher ($63.06) & Dec 128 pts higher ($53.31)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 143.4 K T. vs. 150-300 K T. expected

Soybeans raced higher Sunday night led by soybean oil. Soybean meal went along for the ride but only minimally. Profit taking was the feature once the day session started. This not only held true for the flat price but for the spreads as well. Weekly soybean export inspections were uninspiring as they came in just below the low end of expectations. Soybean meal was once again the weakling of the two products. The poor price action of the soybean meal does act as a bit of drag on soybean prices despite the high flying soybean oil market. The bear spreading in soybeans allowed the new crop to maintain the plus side going into the close. Trade ideas has the pace of soybean planting at 25%-28% completed (24% reported).

The technical look at July soybeans has me wondering if a price of $15.50 plus has this market appropriately priced for everything we know right now. I can’t help but notice last Tuesday’s spike into new high ground had the market closing lower and now last night’s spike higher closing lower. Don’t get me wrong – I’m not bearish but the market appears vulnerable to more correction given the inability to sustain these spikes higher. New crop soybeans should be able to weather bouts of profit taking as we need more acres unless we are going to see another year of tightness, maybe even tighter vs. what we are looking at this year. For what it is worth – It is my opinion that the soybean market may be losing the battle to garner more planted acres vs. corn.

Daily Support & Resistance – 05/04

July Beans : $15.00 – 15.48

July Meal: $411.0 – $425.0

July Bean Oil: $62.40 – $64.50

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