Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 14 ¼ cents lower ($11.78), Jan 17 cents lower ($11.88 ½) & March 16 ¾ cents lower ($12.00 ¾)

December Soybean Meal closed $0.9 lower ($331.8), Jan $1.3 lower ($328.3) & March $2.1 lower ($327.0)

December Soybean Oil closed 73 pts lower ($58.05), Jan 78 pts lower ($57.89) & March 72 pts lower ($57.68)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 2.646 M T. vs. 1.100-2.515 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop ProgressHarvested – 87% vs. 89% expected vs. 88% ave

The liquidation run that started last week in the soybean and soybean oil markets continued into today. Some will call it harvest pressure since that has resumed but with only 10-15% of harvest left to do how much harvest pressure could there be? Personally I think its fear of a larger crop and demand not keeping pace whether its exports of crush. Weekly export inspections were nothing short of outstanding but these sort of numbers are not expected to last especially since it was reported last week that cheaper soybean can be had from Brazil for the month of December. If the growing season in Brazil goes without a hitch they will have new crop soybeans available for export by late January. So far the planting pace in Brazil is the 2nd fastest over the past number of years. There some dryness concerns developing in RGDS but it is still early down there as the northern reaches are planted first. The average trade guess has the USDA increasing the soybean yield by 0.4 bpa and the carryout increasing 42 M bu. The World carryout is slated to increase by a similar amount. It will be interesting to see what the USDA does to the export figure since they have already suggested 5.0 M T. less vs. last year. The USDA has been bumping up the crush projections and I wouldn’t be surprised if that continues given the current stout margins. The January Board crush is knocking at the door of new contract highs.

Needless to say the technical look at January soybeans is not too spiffy looking since one has to go back to last March to find Jan beans this low. Maybe I’m out in left field but I question just how much is left on this current break. I do see some longer term support at the $11.50 level and shorter term inter-day charts are suggesting a modest degree of oversold. I would like to think the demand for soybean oil is not going to go away; both from a veg oil and energy point of view. Demand for soybean meal has been improving but if processors continue to crush for the oil our recent meal rally could easily roll over. Dec meal is already $10.0 off of last week’s high.

Daily Support & in Resistance – 11/09

Jan Beans: $11.80 (?) – $12.08

Dec Meal: $325.0 – $338.0

Dec Soy Oil: $56.90 – $59.60

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