Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 11 ¼ cents lower ($15.58), Sept 12 cents lower ($14.03 ¾) & Nov 16 ¾ cents lower ($13.69 ¾)

August Meal closed $7.5 lower ($481.7), Sept $2.8 lower ($431.4) & December $5.0 lower ($398.1)

August Bean Oil closed 12 pts lower ($65.08), Sept 51 pts lower ($61.82) & December 39 pts lower ($61.00)

USDA announces Soybean Meal Export Sale – 132 K T. new crop to Poland

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. -100+200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-700 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 25-200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-150 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected

Soybeans saw a similar rationale to its trade when compared to that of corn. The weather and its recent forecast changes are a given since we dwell on it multiple times during the day. The gap ($13.49 to $13.58) from last Monday to Tuesday is trying to show up as support. We did see some slight short covering late but no where near enough to get us into the plus column. Soybean oil gave it a run to the upside but when crude oil Soybean meal saw selling from inter-market spreading against soybean oil.

The interior cash soybean market (basis) is trying to show signs of stabilization. Processor basis is steady at recent lows while interior river locations are mixed. The midday posting at the gulf is better but still down from where it was at the beginning of the week. The nearby soybean spreads that are impacted by the remaining old crop are firm while November forward spreads continue to put carry into the price structure. Cash offers for soybean meal are coming down in the rail market, coming down in the truck market and coming down in the export market. August meal loses to Sept while Sept is a noticeable gainer on the Oct. New crop meal spreads ran mixed.

I would like to think last week’s Monday to Tuesday gap is support. We got into it a bit today followed by some minor short covering. If this gap is going to be support, we need to reject right away. Both soybean meal and soybean oil still show technical support below recent lows. Right now my near term leans toward consolidation as we await the USDA next week and the guesses/estimates that come before it.

Daily Sport & Resistance – 08/04

Nov Beans: $13.50 – $14.00

Dec Meal: $390.0 – $412.0

Dec Bean Oil: $59.00 – $63.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this he technical is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.