Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 4 ½ cents lower ($16.88 ¾), Sept 3 ¼ cents lower ($15.09) & Nov 1 cent lower ($14.27 ¾)

August Meal closed $2.0 higher ($515.6), Sept $0.5 higher ($449.6) & December $2.4 lower ($407.8)

August Bean Oil closed 87 pts higher ($70.56), Sept 162 pts higher ($67.38) & December 137 pts higher ($65.99)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sale – 196 K T. new crop to China

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. -100+200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 300-700 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 75-325 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-12 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected

In the last couple of days old soybeans and old crop soybean meal have had upside influences on their respective new crop contracts. Their influence was here today as well but on both sides of unchanged. Strength came early while weakness materialized late in the morning. The August contracts just have two days of life left so a little bit will go a long way in terms of intra-day movement. Soybean oil got a lift from the down-turn in meal prices (inter-market spreading) as well as stronger crude oil/RBOB prices. Recent ideas of weather going forward have not changed – heat will continue in the south central Plains while cooling elsewhere all the while maintaining a dry bias. Recent announced soybean export sales, 596 K T. since Friday, are a welcome sign as many have become worried about the US/China relationship due to certain political actions.

The interior soybean basis continues to trade all over the place. Offers at the Gulf are nothing short of astronomical at $3.00 over the Nov. Bids went undefined at the midday posting. The price action in August soybeans suggests we may finally see some deliveries. That remains to be seen given the lack of liquidity in that contract. The truck meal basis continues to stay strong while the rail basis runs steady to better. The export basis runs undefined today.

Old crop soybeans and old crop products will continue to trade in their own little world. The continued unknown around the new crop adds to their wild Once August goes off the Board on Friday September will step up to fill the gap until new crop becomes ready.  Watch the nearby gulf basis slots as they will be the recipient of any early harvested Delta soybeans. The other day I suggested November soybeans would be range bound between $13.50 and $14.50 as we wait for the USDA on Friday. My top end was hit today before selling off. The flighty action in new crop meal continues to suggest to me the topside is not long for this world. As for December soybean oil I’ll re-appraise if and when I see $68.00.

Daily Sport & Resistance – 08/11

Nov Beans: $14.02 – $14.50

Dec Meal: $400.0 – $416.0 

Dec Bean Oil: $64.00 – $67.75

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