August Soybeans expired 40 ¼ cents lower ($16.69 ¼), Sept closed 14 ¾ cents higher ($15.35) & Nov 5 ¾ cents higher ($14.54 ¼)
August Meal expired unchanged ($520.2), Sept closed $8.2 higher ($464.7) & December $5.5 higher ($417.9)
August Bean Oil expired unchanged ($71.97), Sept closed 23 pts higher ($69.53) & December 35 pts higher ($67.97)
USDA Old Crop Soybeans US – lowered exports 10 M bu., increased carryout 10 M bu.
USDA New Crop Soybeans US – increased carryin 10 M. bu., lowered harvested acres 300 K, increased yield 0.4 bpa, increased production 26 M bu., left crush unchanged, increased exports 20 M bu., increased carryout 15 M bu., STU 5.4 % vs. 5.1% last month vs. 5.0% vs. year ago
USDA New Crop Soybeans World – increased carryin 1.0 M T., increased production 1.39 M T., increased usage 500 K T., increased carryout 1.80 M T.
Did this data really merit November soybeans being down as much as 30 cents? Not in my book. Sure the data came in higher than expected but it is still difficult to get too bearish on a 245 M bu. carryout projection when condition ratings are still trending lower and with a dry bias forecast. November soybeans should stay firm until we see better moisture to finish the crop (and not just forecasts).
Daily Sport & Resistance – 08/15
Nov Beans: $14.26 – $14.80
Dec Meal: $406.0 – $430.0 (?)
Dec Bean Oil: $66.00 – $72.00
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.